USA has announced an addition of 30,000 troops to Afghanistan. As of 2009, they already spend $60billion/year on the military stuff to ‘defeat’ Al-Qaida there and only $2billion/year on improvement of the people.
Sure , you can spend $60 billion a year wiping out Al-Qaida in Afghanistan, but WHAT IF(and that is a big if) you wipe them out; chances you they will just regroup and reform in a neighboring country that the USA does not have a large military presence on i.e Pakistan.
The first question the USA has to address is not how to wipe Al-Qaida out, but rather how to reduce the number of people involved with Al-Qaida.
Al-Qaida is like any army in the world, and why do people join the army in other countries? While some might really be for ‘Queen and Country’ , most join the army for COMFORT and SECUIRITY. In the USA ,most recruits aren’t from the elite politicians son or bluebloods. They are from down rural or poverty stricken towns where joining the Army is the only way out.
Why don’t bluebloods join the army, well, there are simply better alternatives than the Army. The costs of being injured/death outweighs the benefit of a stable job. As well, bluebloods tend to be highly educated and their human capital is worth much more in the business world, but anyways…
What USA needs to do is , as Jeffry Sachs stated, to redirect funding to developing a nation torn by war. Where life is uncertain, and the only insurance against hunger is joining the army. Blowing up deserts and sending marines to combat zone isn’t going to help the common citizen, and resources can be used in a much smarter way. It is hard to believe Obama does not see this. It is also, in the long run, a lot cheaper to build up infrastructure and human capital, than sending expensive Marines with their high danger pay where they end up doing nothing but patrolling and terrorizing .
According to reports, 30000 additional troops will cost $30billion/year! What if the USA government used only one year of this extra cost to pay for the wages of the teachers, rebuild schools, hospitals and provide food to the population? Send in administrators and a few engineers instead of troops that blow things up. Lets see…
population of Afghan: 28 million.
As I stated above, I believe people join the army for security and food due to poverty.
1) If the USA used $30billion to feed everyone in the population. (assuming poverty line according to UN is living under $1/day) then with a population of 28million they could FEED EVERYONE FOR 1071 DAYS OR 3 YEARS.
Now lets start over, say the extra troops are planned to be there for 5 years in total. Each year will cost less than the first year due to sunk costs. So, it would cost (for sake of ease) an additionally 20billion/year for 4 years.
2) What other means could the $80+30billion (110billion total) be used for in a 5 year plan?
SECURITY (food)
i) everyone gets $1/day for 5 years for food: 1825days X population = $53billion
(still have 110-53billion= 57billion to spare!)
EDUCATION
ii) In a developing country, schools I think, are fairy low key and cheap to build. Lets say with corruption (which is inevitable), it costs $1million. Each school has 1000 students and teacher to student ration is 1:100. Now since the population distribution in Afghanistan will undoubtly be more children. lets say 40-60% distribution. Meaning 17million will be of school age. (I am now making wild assumptions) And the teachers make $10/day. USA pays for 5 years.
So: $1million/school , 17million students, 1 teacher per 100 student, 1000 students/school.
You would need: 17,000 schools and 170,000 teachers.
Cost: $17billion + (170000x$10x365daysx5years) = $20 billion
(still have $37 billion to spare)
HOSPITALS
iii) 1 hospital for every 100,000 people. Wage of doctors to be $50/day. 4 doctors for every 100,000 people. Just need to worry about wage. Hospital cost $2 million.
You would need 280 hospitals, 1120 doctors
Cost: (280x $2million) + (1120 x $50/day x 365 x 5 years) =$600,000,000…….lets round this up to $1billion. for wage.
MEDICINE
iv) lets say medicine is 6 billion
still $30 billion to spare.
INFRASTRUCTURE
v) for the next 5 years we build infrastructure and employ 25% of working population. i.e. 11 million x .25= 3 million people. Also pay them $3 a day. (in addition to food)
3million x $3/day x 365 days x 5 years = $5.5 billion
now for the roads, canals, irrigation!
lets add another $10billion for roads.
Now we have $15billion left.
vi) lets give everyone seeds, a bucket to water, and a plow.
There, now everyone is happy and a much better way to spend that $110 billion dollars:
and why is it a better way?
i) everyone has food!
2) minimal things blowing up
3) health care
4) kids have better things to do (school) than being desperate and looking for security i.e. joining Al-Qaida. Education gives them something to look forward to, think better.
5) People are working/ planting.
6) once the economy starts churning along, people will become entrepreneurs. $1 will turn into more, people will be too busy making money to care about some Jihad , or blowing up stuff. In the end what do we all want in life? but stability, a family and not worry about food on a day-to-day basis.
AN EXCELLENT PLAN :)
now if only people would think the same.
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